What Will Be The Long Island Wine Landscape in 10 Years?

In 2023 Long Island will celebrate a half century of wine production.  While it will be the decisions of the vineyard and winery proprietors, vineyard managers, winemakers, winery business and sales managers, and ultimately the customers that will determine where Long Island Wine will be in 10 years, based upon the state of Long Island Wine in 2013 combined with both local and national trends it is possible to make some forecasts, which may be as inaccurate as a long range weather forecast.

Wineries

It is highly likely there will be many more Long Island wineries in 2023, although many will not be traditional wineries.  The financial barriers to develop many more “brick and mortar” wineries are high due to escalating land costs on the North Fork.  Further, the fact that a number of wineries have been for sale and have not sold indicates the number of domestic and foreign investors willing to purchase expensive Long Island wineries is limited. Therefore the growth will likely come from an increasing number of “virtual wineries”.  These virtual wineries are not spin off brands or spin off wineries of existing wineries, but rather stand alone wine producers that do not have a winery/cellar and in many cases also do not have vineyards. These are wineries developed by a new generation of wine producers; winemakers and business people that have a desire to produce wine but will do so without huge capital investments.  Today there already exist such virtual wineries on Long Island including Anthony Nappa Wines, Lisa Donneson’s Bouké/Bouquet Wines and until recently Roman Roth’s Grapes of Roth.  With access to contract grape purchases, custom crush facilities or contracted wine-making at established winery facilities, contracted storage facilities, entrepreneurs can establish new wineries relatively rapidly. In most wine regions of California virtual wineries are gaining rapid legitimacy and the trend is quickly spreading to Oregon and Washington. The addition of a new generation of winery proprietors and winemakers will likely spur creative development of Long Island Wine beyond the somewhat conservative and traditional approach that exists today.

 

Wine Types and Styles

 

Due to the significant existing acreage and investment in vineyards composed of traditional varietals, it is highly likely in 2023 that the majority of Long Island wines will remain the classic Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc and Merlot wines. But it is possible that in 10 years there will be increased production of newer edgier wines made from more diverse varietals.  And it is even more likely that red wine blends and white wine blends will complement the growing number of rosé wines and sparkling wines being produced on Long Island.  As Carlo DiVito has recently posted, the promise of Bordeaux style blends is very appealing to wine producers, and may be attractive to consumers.  At the same time there are an increasing number of white wine blends currently being produced that are outstanding and demonstrate the quality and potential of Long Island.  Given the substantial quantity of Chardonnay and Merlot vineyard acreage on Long Island, and the national trend of lesser interest in both varietals, perhaps using these grape varieties as the basis for some outstanding blended wines would be a win-win solution.  A commitment by a number of wineries to such an approach, combined with a well done marketing and sales campaign, could result in a Long Island version of the Rhône Rangers, which turned production of rather obscure Rhône varietals on the West Coast into a most successful national wine style and great financial success.  

 

Market Access

 

The market for traditional Long Island single varietal wines in 10 years will likely remain centered on the greater New York City market.  Winery owners and their marketing and sales managers appear to have read the tea leaves correctly that other major US wine retail markets (San Francisco, Washington, DC, etc.) are not fertile ground for Long Island Wines.  However, if exiting wineries and the new generation of wineries do indeed develop unique wines; be they aromatic white varietals, cult red varietals or edgy blends, then there will exist an unlimited  opportunity to market Long Island wines throughout the Untitled States.  The small real and virtual wineries of the West Sonoma Coast, the Lompoc Ghetto, or the Portland Garagistes have leveraged such non-traditional wines into enormous national demand and sales.  Long Island has exactly the same potential.

 

Summary

In ten years the Long Island Wine landscape may be very similar to what it is today. However, the potential exists in new wineries, a new generation of wine producers and the development of unique Long Island wine styles, that in 2020 and beyond the landscape may look very different and be very exciting.